tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21325066484122409092024-03-14T00:25:46.942-05:00Who Moved My Liberty?A blog about freedom, or lack thereof.Prof Jhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16539902592080231165noreply@blogger.comBlogger316125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2132506648412240909.post-79138590218978592432015-02-06T17:03:00.002-06:002015-02-06T17:03:42.099-06:00Hell and Justice<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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Most Christians today agree that the Bible teaches a literal
hell, although there is some disagreement on the endurance of one’s soul in
hell. Catholicism teaches that one can be rescued out of hell or purgatory
through the prayers of the living. The Mormon faith also diverges with
mainstream Protestants on the meaning and nature of hell. Save for the two
examples above, most Christians believe that non-believers and the wicked will
be condemned to this place of torment forever and ever. There is no chance of
parole nor can you be pardoned. This will be your final and eternal resting
place. Period.<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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So, the question we have is this: is eternal damnation a
just punishment and does eternal damnation confound our meaning of justice?</div>
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With regard to punishment, the human concept of justice is
closely measured with the magnitude of the offense. A premeditated murderous act
would earn an individual a much harsher sentence than failing to buckle up. Not
so with hell. The slightest infraction, no matter how small, will earn you one
way ticket to eternal suffering. Somehow, though, suffering for eternity seems
inconceivable and incredibly harsh no matter your crime. Consider the
following:</div>
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A young Jewish boy caught up in the Nazi war machine is
tortured, starved, and forced to work unimaginable toil. Then, he is gassed to
death. As a young lad it’s quite possible that he had heard of Jesus, but he
was most likely brought up in the Jewish tradition and faith. This most unfortunate
and horrific event undoubtedly included several thousand young Jewish boys and
girls during WWII. That is, they all died a horrific death at or near the “age
of accountability” without knowing Christ.</div>
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<br /></div>
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and, of course, Adolph Hitler were directly responsible for the deaths of
millions of Jews. These men plotted unthinkable acts of horror and carried them
out on the young, old and sick with a merciless and callous sense of satisfaction.
These men, too, died without knowing Christ. Jump ahead to their judgment
before God.</div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">God</b>: what say
you?</div>
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<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Jewish Boy</b>: I’m
sorry, but I didn’t know your son, Jesus. I was torn from my family when I was
just 10, forced into labor by the Nazis, and then tortured and killed. I, and
thousands like me, stand before you today and ask for mercy.</div>
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<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Nazis</b>: Yes, we
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reservation. But we also ask for mercy. We understand we must pay for our sins,
but an eternity spent in hell seems harsh even for us. We beg for mercy.</div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">God to the Nazis</b>:
I’m sorry – I never knew you. You are condemned to hell forever and ever.</div>
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<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">God to the Jewish Boy</b>:
I’m sorry – I never knew you. You are also condemned to an eternity in hell where
you will suffer unimaginable pain forever and ever.</div>
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----------------------------- </div>
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If this what the Bible teaches, does it not render our
notion of justice senseless?</div>
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<br /></div>
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We could also discuss the justice of hell for people who
were unlucky enough to die after the life of Christ but before they had any
knowledge of Him. Untold thousands most certainly lived and died without
knowing Christ, both in the literal and spiritual sense. The gospels weren’t
written for years after Christ’s life and information about him could be
delivered only through word-of-mouth. Yet, the Bible is clear about the fate of
unbelievers: eternity in hell.</div>
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<br /></div>
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So, how do we reconcile the foreverness of hell and justice?
Do we simply accept it and move on, or do we hope that exceptions apply. It’s easy
(in today’s modern and connected world) to lump all unbelievers into a nice,
neat category and condemn them to hell. However, a part of us can’t help but
decry this all-or-none proposition as unbelievably harsh and cruel when applied
to individuals. </div>
Brad Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03950312793230274562noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2132506648412240909.post-20150666358947770242015-02-05T19:13:00.004-06:002015-02-05T19:13:40.170-06:00I'm Back!Brad's clan has officially moved back to the states. I took a promotion and we have moved from Seoul, South Korea to El Paso, TX. Now, you might be telling yourself that moving from fantastic Seoul to barren west Texas seems less like a promotion and more like a downgrade. I won't lie: we did give up a few things by leaving Korea (great food, good friends, etc) but it's good to be home. And so far, El Paso has not disappointed. The wife is happy; the kids can walk to their schools; and I have my own office at work. We get over 300 days of sunshine - yes, it gets hot in the summertime, but I'll take blue sky and warm temps over clouds and rain any day. So, thanks for keeping the lights on, and I look forward to some very interesting posts.<br />
<br />
Talk to you soon...Brad Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03950312793230274562noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2132506648412240909.post-7224227822757100182014-09-02T13:08:00.000-05:002014-09-02T17:17:44.449-05:00A Perennial Argument in Financial Economics<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
This post addresses the presence of “bubbles” in asset prices. The first task is to define a “bubble,” partially so we know what we’re discussing, and partly so I can stop using scare quotes. The intrinsic value of an asset is the present value of the future cash flows, discounted at the appropriate rate, called the capitalization rate. The capitalization rate is the required return on the asset less the expected growth rate of the cash flows themselves. For equities, the cash flow is the sum of: (1) dividends, (2) capital gains including those arising from buybacks. VNote that a lot of the work in finance is about the correct model for the required return. For example, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Fama-French three factor model. I’m not going to go over those specific models in this post, but I will discuss the importance of the required return shortly.<br /><br /> When discussing the stock market as a whole, we can arguably use a simplified valuation equation, known as the Gordon Growth model. The Gordon model assumes a constant growth rate of the cash flows. This simplification allows us to see the three factors that affect asset values: expected future cash flows, required return, and expected growth rate. These factors are the fundamentals of the asset. Now, in financial economics, we think of a “bubble” as a fourth factor, one that causes the market price to deviate from the intrinsic value. The equation would thus be:<br /><br />
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2132506648412240909" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2132506648412240909" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2132506648412240909" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2132506648412240909" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2132506648412240909" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2132506648412240909" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a>So is any deviation from intrinsic value is a bubble? That would be true in a world of perfect information and foresight. But recall we estimate everything, and have imperfect knowledge and information, so the market value can substantially deviate from the intrinsic value without there being a bubble. This fact makes a bubble extremely difficult to detect except (maybe) in hindsight. Essentially the best we can do is to say something like “market values are very difficult to justify based on what we know about stock market fundamentals and what’s likely to happen in the future.” But caution doesn’t put your name in the papers. <br /><br /><br /> My opinion is that most disagreement comes from the growth rate. I remember during the asset price run-up in the late 1990s (the so-called tech bubble) so many talking heads on the financial television shows were spouting “new economy” to justify extraordinary valuations of stocks. That’s basically an argument about growth rates. Another source of disagreement, although less so, is the required return. The problem with required return for the stock market as a whole is that it is often backed out of the valuation equation (2) using current asset values. Thus it amounts to the same bit of information but viewed in a different way.<br /><br /><br /> So now we have the definition of a bubble: market prices that are not justified by the underlying fundamentals. We also now realize how difficult a definition this is to apply. That’s two reasons we see so much fighting about bubbles. And, even if we could positively identify a bubble to everyone’s satisfaction, we have no ability to time the bursting of the bubble.<br /><br /><br /> I recall a paper by Scheinkman, in the early 2000s, in which he showed that a market participant that knew, for a fact, the market was currently in a bubble would still have incentive to trade because of the ‘bigger sucker’ factor. So merely recognizing the bubble exists is not enough to say it should pop. It’s also a question of when others decide there’s a bubble. By the way, there can also be negative asset price bubbles; it’s just that most bubble talk happens when asset prices appear to be abnormally high. <br /><br /><br /><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2132506648412240909"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2132506648412240909"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2132506648412240909"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2132506648412240909"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2132506648412240909"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2132506648412240909"></a> In the interests of responsible journalism, what I’d like to see happen is replacement of the use of “bubble” with “asset prices seem abnormally high/low.” While that might seem mealy-mouthed to some, it’s actually the only truly justifiable statement. And, if you truly believe asset prices are abnormally high, keep your mouth shut and trade: buy puts for example. <br /><br /><br /> To close this post, I'll draw your attention to the trend lines drawn in the graph of Real NYSE prices below. The trend line with the highest slope would be what we'd get if we had the same stock returns during the tech boom. It's off the chart at the top. The trend line with the lowest slope is simply connecting the low point prior to the tech boom and (almost) the low point reached when the real estate crash bottomed out. The third (moderate) trend line is tracing the slope from prior to the tech boom, and assuming that the returns during that period are a reasonable guide. If that moderate trend line is correct, then a large portion of the stock boom since the mid-1990s has been unjustifiably high. But the question is, where's the bubble? It depends on where the trend line "should" be.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiU615HWMyssoEqhtA9G_fvLgT-Zo4FTAmyVYSMKu4ilcUXj0oBb9cwkYBmeBhtZU8aPJlkNxKbyrp32y1sYglLVVt4gCHqwsDax0xmHmxvmHsEXXo5Pcavxx-rE8D9S7GOVllgJuXkIfr3/s1600/nsye.jpg"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiU615HWMyssoEqhtA9G_fvLgT-Zo4FTAmyVYSMKu4ilcUXj0oBb9cwkYBmeBhtZU8aPJlkNxKbyrp32y1sYglLVVt4gCHqwsDax0xmHmxvmHsEXXo5Pcavxx-rE8D9S7GOVllgJuXkIfr3/s1600/nsye.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiU615HWMyssoEqhtA9G_fvLgT-Zo4FTAmyVYSMKu4ilcUXj0oBb9cwkYBmeBhtZU8aPJlkNxKbyrp32y1sYglLVVt4gCHqwsDax0xmHmxvmHsEXXo5Pcavxx-rE8D9S7GOVllgJuXkIfr3/s1600/nsye.jpg" height="176" width="320" /></a>Prof Jhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16539902592080231165noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2132506648412240909.post-8222942626115946592014-03-05T22:21:00.000-06:002014-03-05T22:21:06.633-06:00Obamacare Just Made Americans Richer Without Anyone Noticing<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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That’s what the <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/04/obamacare-january-bea_n_4892267.html" target="_blank">headline in the Huffington Post</a> said.<br />
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If all we need to become richer is legislation from
Washington D.C., why hasn’t this been done before and sooner? If mere laws can
create wealth, our riches are limited only by our imagination. </div>
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<br /></div>
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The sad and undeniable truth is that wealth is not created by legislation. Washington can only force the transfer of previously-created wealth from group A to group B, while skimming a little off the top for itself. Even my grade school children are wise to this fact.<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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Brad Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03950312793230274562noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2132506648412240909.post-1490310543232456872014-03-05T01:44:00.001-06:002014-03-05T01:46:48.911-06:00Crimea = Iraq?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]-->I read today where the government of the United States is
preparing to enact sanctions against Moscow for invading Crimea. Isn’t this
just a little hypocritical? Did Russia, or any country for that matter, slap
the United States with sanctions when we invaded Iraq ten years ago?<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
After 9/11, not only did we falsely claim that Saddam Hussein
was preparing to unleash a torrent of WMDs against the United States, but we deployed
our finest salesmen to convince a skeptical world that it was true. Now, we
scorn another world power for doing what we did.</div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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Maybe Putin is convinced Crimea has WMDs. His only miscalculation
may have been failing to convince everyone else before invading.</div>
Brad Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03950312793230274562noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2132506648412240909.post-91806331007272430562014-02-18T04:25:00.000-06:002014-02-18T04:25:12.179-06:00Lack of competition means higher prices<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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I was shopping at a large E-Mart store in Seoul the other day and
decided to do a little sleuthing of their electronics department.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Korean E-Mart is equivalent to Target in
terms of inventory selection, store ambience, and shopping experience.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It might compare to nicer, newer super Wal Mart
stores, but from my experience, Target is a better comparison.<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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While perusing the TVs, I noticed that only two brands were
offered for sale: LG and Samsung. I could find no other brand of television (or
computer) throughout the whole store. No Sony, Panasonic, or Vizio.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Only Korean brands on sale here.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So, what does the lack of competition mean
for the average Korean consumer? Higher prices and less selection, of course.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5nFjluhIb0NhFVHHx4Sq4UcjuXzieLoj2IQiEQEK8ZCfN0D0ID6g1TJHrix0Bi-4ZzxjzzlgTFy8LAGRXAyRvCEt6oXKJRwHoXUUr_WujqvNlk0TZxU-_mVPXT4LBlFoV9LNNfq8NP9rK/s1600/167.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5nFjluhIb0NhFVHHx4Sq4UcjuXzieLoj2IQiEQEK8ZCfN0D0ID6g1TJHrix0Bi-4ZzxjzzlgTFy8LAGRXAyRvCEt6oXKJRwHoXUUr_WujqvNlk0TZxU-_mVPXT4LBlFoV9LNNfq8NP9rK/s1600/167.JPG" height="239" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
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<br /></div>
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I randomly picked seven televisions for my analysis: 3 LGs
and 4 Samsung’s.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I noted their price in
Korean Won and converted it to dollars at a 1,060=$1 exchange rate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I then searched Amazon.com and New Egg for
the same model and noted the price.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
cases where Amazon and New Egg prices differed, I took the average. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I then calculated the percent increase that
Koreans pay compared to US customers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Have a look.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjzwkn6ZFNjJ9dYMUXHJ4BRSkM6EG5Hb9-G22LhFlcD3tzoj_5QQmovBI3w2caMnaFW9wa7zltJkC7PP22aa6cTyJD1MsUTr18n4uQnPKoHXrstNT6FJGY0bF20NoaHIEmMvD35Al41M6y/s1600/LG+Samsung+TVs.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjzwkn6ZFNjJ9dYMUXHJ4BRSkM6EG5Hb9-G22LhFlcD3tzoj_5QQmovBI3w2caMnaFW9wa7zltJkC7PP22aa6cTyJD1MsUTr18n4uQnPKoHXrstNT6FJGY0bF20NoaHIEmMvD35Al41M6y/s1600/LG+Samsung+TVs.png" height="90" width="400" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
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In one instance, Koreans paid one-and-half times the price Americans would pay for the same product. I suspect that if I were to analyze computer prices, I would find similar results.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
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Korean culture is fiercely nationalistic, and they pay
handsomely for their country loyalty. I’m not exactly sure why non-Korean TVs
aren’t sold at E-Mart – it could be a company decision (doubtful, but possible)
or government restriction (more likely). However, one thing is clear: these two
companies are looting their customers, most likely with the aid of the
government. Without any competition from outside brands, LG and Samsung can charge
artificially high prices, and the result is that Korean customers are made
worse off. Competition would mean more selection and lower prices, something
that I bet most Koreans would embrace given the chance. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
Brad Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03950312793230274562noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2132506648412240909.post-19538175071276517692014-01-19T14:30:00.000-06:002014-01-19T14:30:03.107-06:00What I Learned About Fitness From Watching My DogI have an English Bulldog and I enjoy watching him do his dog stuff. After getting more interested in ancestral (aka primal, paleo, etc.) health, I started to watch him for more than enjoyment. I noticed some lessons I can learn from him regarding exercise.<br />
<br />
First, bulldogs are solid muscle. They are not naturally fat. A fat bulldog is a sign of an over-indulgent owner, and that's bad for the dog. But I digress. Bulldogs of all types are solid muscle, naturally. But they don't lift weights or do cardio on machines. They just do dog stuff. Oh, by the way, bulldogs do need a fair bit of exercise. The laziness is a myth. No, they aren't crazy runners like labs or border collies, but they do need a couple miles of walkies every day.<br />
<br />
Now, if you take a dog to a big field, or you live on an acreage, you can leave them off the leash and observe their instinctual behavior. My dog likes to patrol. He walks the perimeter rather slowly. Every now and then, he sprints like crazy. Way faster than I can. Apparently bulldogs are natural sprinters. Now, given their weight, bulldogs really only need that walking/sprinting to maintain muscle tone. But they also like to play. He's big on tug-of-war and chewing, both of which are great for his neck and jaw muscles. So all of their activity is 'working out' in a way, because it's exercise, but ultimately it's just play.<br />
<br />
So the first lesson I learned: make exercise more like play. Second lesson: walk a lot, but slowly. Spring occasionally. The third lesson comes from watching him jump his weighty butt onto a couch. And that is to lift heavy things occasionally. It's all about functional fitness, because he wasn't doing anything to look good. He's already pretty :).Prof Jhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16539902592080231165noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2132506648412240909.post-85542910846367359362014-01-16T02:56:00.000-06:002014-01-16T02:56:47.477-06:00Unemployment insurance, but for how long?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]-->If you were the parent of an unemployed child (not referring
to age here), how many weeks of unemployment benefits would you continue to
dole out to your kid before you realized that those cash payments were becoming
a disincentive to work?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At what point do
you say enough is enough?
Brad Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03950312793230274562noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2132506648412240909.post-6191465603632976522014-01-14T15:49:00.000-06:002014-01-14T15:49:01.981-06:00Whole Foods LoveA new Whole Foods opened up on my walking route between work and home. I can only say they are going to get a large portion of my paycheck. I was wandering through there today, picked up some nice beef bones for stock (I prefer a good butcher for this, but good butchers are longer than walking distance for me), and a beautiful chuck roast. I also found some Larabars, which are great paleo/primal-friendly snack bars. The main ingredient is chopped dates instead of cereal, so while they have a fair amount of natural sugar, I think they're fine in moderation.<br />
<br />
The new find, which I really enjoyed, was an Epic beef bar. It's made from grass-fed beef, with dried cherries and habanero. It was quite delicious and gave me a lot of energy during my trudge (lots of snow overnight) home. Definitely will be stocking up on those bad boys! I love the paleo/primal food movement - it has led to some really excellent developments in all aspects of the food supply chain.Prof Jhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16539902592080231165noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2132506648412240909.post-56852574391590721642014-01-12T14:45:00.001-06:002014-01-12T14:45:29.636-06:00Living off the Grid - An Exercise in LogicI admit to being attracted to the notion of living off the grid - separated from the utility networks, living off the land (sort of), and being more secluded than typical city dwellers. Personally I like seclusion, so that's the biggest draw for me. But as I've looked into it, I've noticed a few arguments for living off the grid that sound good at first, but after some thinking may not be altogether accurate.<br />
<br />
The first argument is that it is more environmentally friendly to live off the grid. If you are not on the power 'net, then of course the power generation goes down by whatever you consumed. But is the reduction in power usage due to one household going to make an appreciable difference? Frankly I doubt it, especially if the power plant is designed to provide power to, say, 50,000 households. In fact, the power plant will not reduce the amount of energy it produces. What will happen is, if the plant makes more than is needed, the power will be sold to other companies that don't produce enough power (I'm looking at you, California). So the marginal change in power usage is very small. But not zero, and the amount of reduction would become quite meaningful if, say, 1,000 households left the greed. I'll come back to that point in a minute.<br />
<br />
Now, what about generating your own power off the grid? This is done through a combination of wind and solar power, neither of which generate carbon as part of the energy generation process. However, the rigs to transfer energy from solar panels & windmills to batteries look pretty complex, and those have to be manufactured. So certainly there is some pollution resulting from the manufacturing of these products. Furthermore, such power generating rigs take up more space per household than do commercial power plants.<br />
<br />
So I would argue the environmental impact per household is small, but I don't know in which direction it goes. That would take a fair bit of research and would be based on individual households power usage & how it is supplied. I'm just raising the point that it's not a clear-cut reduction. It could go either way on an individual basis.<br />
<br />
On a large-scale basis, I think the story changes and it's because of efficiency & space arguments. If thousands of households go off the grid, they are all going to need individual power stations which will take up space. This is very inefficient, and producing all these power rigs may well generate more pollution than the marginal reduction in power generation, although it would be more concentrated rather than spread out over time.<br />
<br />
In this post, I simply wanted to raise a concern about the environmental impact of living off the grid. In my next post, I'll be thinking about off-grid living on a large-scale basis especially as it impacts the amount of space required per person. I plan to show, logically, that off-grid living for a large number of people would necessitate a significant reduction in population. That is to say, the only way the world can support 7+ billion people is through technological efficiency, i.e. on-grid living.<br />
<br />
<br />Prof Jhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16539902592080231165noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2132506648412240909.post-11755487056274007352014-01-07T15:57:00.000-06:002014-01-07T15:57:04.771-06:00Living on 24 Hours per DayThis post is inspired by Arnold Bennett's 1910 book "How to Live on 24 Hours a Day." You can get the book for free online. It's a very short book, taking less than an hour to read. While it's short, it offers a very interesting structure for 'living' as opposed to 'vegetating.' In saying 'living' Bennett means mental development and involvement in the world, with a goal of happiness in one's own life. In this post, I'm going to break down Bennett's program into a simple plan and add in some of my own thoughts on the plan.<br />
<br />
Bennett's general program is to take 30 minutes every morning, six days per week, and 90 minutes every other evening, and use that time to read (evening) and reflect (morning). The trick is to make the reading something mentally straining, that requires some exercise of the mental faculty. Bennett discusses several different categories that one might read, but leaves the subject open to the individual pursuing the program of reading & reflection. Bennett acknowledges sequestering 7.5 hours per week involves sacrifice, but also claims it is necessary and worthwhile to live an engaged life.<br />
<br />
The steps as I see them (arranged to balance ease & importance).<br />
<br />
1) Find 30 minutes in the morning to reflect.<br />
<br />
Reflection means concentrating the mind on a topic and thinking deeply and carefully about the topic. Concentration is quite difficult, and if one is not accustomed to it then it will take time to build this skill. To assist in developing the skill, I would suggest mindfulness meditation (as opposed to mediation for relaxation).<br />
<br />
I understand it may be difficult to find this time. If you work at a day job, morning is often a hectic mess to fly out the door to get to work on time. I suggest trying to rework your morning so that it's calmer. At any rate, public transportation can be an ideal time for reflection. One turns inward, and ignores surroundings, during a period of reflection. Personally I walk to work, so that's not ideal for reflection. But if one takes the train, for example, or a commuter coach, I can think of no better time for reflection.<br />
<br />
If the ride to work is not a good time for reflection, then you have to carve some time out of your morning routine. This might involve getting up 30 minutes earlier than is currently the case, or sacrificing something you are doing in the morning. This is important, because without the period of reflection, you will gain little benefit from the all the reading you will do, and your mind will not grow. The result? You'll be stuck right where you find yourself, without moving closer to a happy, fulfilled life.<br />
<br />
2) Find 90 minutes every other night to read.<br />
<br />
Bennett recommends sequestering more than 90 minutes, because if one will read something difficult for a total of 90 minutes, one has to allow for potential distractions. As mentioned earlier, one should chose something that stretches the mind, but it should also be an area of one's interest. Being a specialist in an area is a source of great joy.<br />
<br />
When just starting on the program, one shouldn't set too ambitious of a goal. If you are interested in philosophy, for example, don't try to tackle Kant straight off. Start with some introductory reviews, and then get to the more complex material once you've laid a foundation. Otherwise, you may find the reading too onerous and give up.<br />
<br />
As one is reading, one should be tuned in for anything that gives some indication of cause and effect relationships in the world. The ability to discern cause and effect in the world will go a long way to help alleviate the view that the world is somehow capricious or simply a series of accidents. In Bennett's words, understanding cause and effect will lead one to become "large headed and large hearted."<br />
<br />
<br />
These first two steps are sufficient for the first three months. As time progresses, more time may be spent reading, or more days. Also, the difficulty of reading may be increased as one's mind becomes more trained. The next steps are really just advanced versions of these two basic steps.<br />
<br />
3) Reflect on happiness, the direction of your life, what life is giving you, and the relationship between principles & conduct.<br />
<br />
Bennett asserts that happiness comes from development of reason and the adjustment of conduct to principles. Just what those principles are may come from reflection, or one's own background, or what have you. At any rate, use the reflecting time to dwell on your principles and determine whether or not your conduct is consistent with your principles. As time passes, use your reason to align your conduct with your principles, and you will find happiness. This is much more desirable than letting instinct guide actions, which is far more common.<br />
<br />
One may also expand the reflecting period beyond just the morning time to the evening, on the way home from work. This seems to me a good time to think about one's conduct during the day.<br />
<br />
4) Suggested reading topics.<br />
<br />
If you are not sure what to read, Bennett offers some suggestions. His primary suggestion is poetry. From my own experience with poetry, I agree with Bennett. I especially like Kipling, Whitman, Frost, and Service. But poetry is taxing to the brain, and takes a fair bit of thought to understand what the poet is trying to say, which makes is more desirable for the task of expanding one's mind than prose.<br />
<br />
I personally suggest all people to obtain some understanding of economics. Begin with Hazlitt's "Economics in One Lesson" and then move on to Rothbard & Mises. This, in my view, is an excellent method of understanding the cause & effect of the world. Bennett also recommends Marcus Aurelius and Epictetus. But this, in the final reckoning, is the reader's choice.<br />
<br />
The idea behind this program is to live a happier, more fulfilled life. One that is more thoughtful, more deliberate, than the one you might be living. But of course, if you are already happy and fulfilled and aren't doing something like this program, then please let us know your secret in the comments section!<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Prof Jhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16539902592080231165noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2132506648412240909.post-40346614124666630832013-12-09T02:50:00.001-06:002013-12-09T03:10:24.378-06:00The Power of Incentives <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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My wife and I have a “high-deductible”
health plan.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And we credit this type of
plan for saving us money on healthcare expenses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“Why”, you ask?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Because incentives matter.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">
Here’s how it
works.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In January of each year, United
Healthcare deposits $2,400 into our health savings account.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We may use the funds for any medical-related expenditure,
including some qualifying dental expenses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>As an additional benefit, we aren’t required to establish a primary care
physician and then waste time and money searching for referrals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead we may visit the specialist of our
choice without the hassle of first asking for permission.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">
Costs for office
visits and procedures are paid directly out of our HSA account.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And filing is similar to other kinds of
insurance.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We just hand the doctor our
insurance card and the funds are deducted from our account.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We can save money by using in-network
doctors, but we can also venture out if we want.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sure, we’ll pay a little more, but the choice
is ours, and we believe more choice is good.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">
Now, here’s the
best feature: any unused funds from the prior year are automatically carried
forward into the next year – up to a maximum of $10,000 per family.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This allows us to “save” up for an emergency.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The ability to roll over unused funds also
creates a neat incentive – it makes us smarter consumers of our healthcare
dollars.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We routinely shop around and are
quick to question doctors about procedures. And our efforts pay off.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Our dermatologist sent tissue samples to two
different labs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One lab charged $495 and
the other $125 – for the same tests! With a regular health plan, there is
exactly zero incentive (once the small co-pay has been paid) to forego any additional
test, procedure, or lab work because the cost to do so is hidden.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">
Americans overspend
on healthcare because we don’t know how much we're spending.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While this may sound crazy, it follows the economic
axiom that people tend to over-consume when not faced with the full cost of consumption.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With traditional insurance coverage, most
costs over and above the co-pay are paid directly by the insurance company, not
the consumer. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This “third party” payer
system has had the unintended consequence of masking the true cost of
healthcare.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When friends ask about how
much a particular procedure costs, we simply respond that it was covered by
insurance. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And since we don’t know how much
something costs, we can’t really know if we should forego its purchase.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We’ve abandoned one of the most essential
elements of free market economics: the price system.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">
The price system
works because we respond to incentives.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Absent
this remarkable feature of the market system, our ability to weigh tradeoffs is
severely diminished.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Our so-called solution has been to shift this responsibility
to third parties like insurance companies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But this is problematic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We routinely
complain and lament insurance companies for denying claims.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On the other hand, insurance firm owners
probably complain that their customers are routinely trying to abuse their
services by constantly ordering wasteful tests and unneeded procedures.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And this awful arrangement will continue as
long as we as health consumers are denied access to prices. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">
Consumer-driven
high-deductible health plans save money because they capitalize on the economic
theory that people are more cautious when spending their own money.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Insurance plans that allow consumers to
accumulate unused healthcare dollars for future healthcare expenditures create
additional incentives for healthcare consumers to comparison shop.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This would help create true healthcare competition
– something that is badly needed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 200%; text-indent: .5in;">
Obamacare does
little to advance this money-saving potential.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In fact, Obamacare discourages high-deductible plans in favor of more
traditional insurance arrangements.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
is unfortunate and almost guarantees that we’ll continue to spend ever more on healthcare
while denying folks the opportunity to be in control of their healthcare
choices and dollars. </div>
Brad Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03950312793230274562noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2132506648412240909.post-72552602428251431342013-12-07T16:51:00.001-06:002013-12-07T16:51:22.757-06:00A Comparison<span style="font-family: inherit;">I thought of this after watching the movie <i>The Internship</i>. </span><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvrmr1ImR_RMxJOwZ90mpsdfB2NhEmX4ddfktAv69GatlmC35kkEnmBBzHCyqoq8-YlRugwSmBZwOQkKiedPEIyrLTkHqZG3ZnWDTxdtVOtDuNvmp4W3u5G85cUXa3QZfhh8YEO5Np4gvq/s1600/Google_scn_shot.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="155" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvrmr1ImR_RMxJOwZ90mpsdfB2NhEmX4ddfktAv69GatlmC35kkEnmBBzHCyqoq8-YlRugwSmBZwOQkKiedPEIyrLTkHqZG3ZnWDTxdtVOtDuNvmp4W3u5G85cUXa3QZfhh8YEO5Np4gvq/s320/Google_scn_shot.PNG" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Cost to Taxpayers - $0</b></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
----------------------</div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiFBEiw7NIZ_-LSphQD2jlXGyaa43ShULtNyZ3epDxk_GWGpeuwGCt0C6JbvilpZp0O-9wklQ-Qyzh0CW8u-D80r0vlfqmWyapb2ZOLMuJwaUNEHvAdyLC1sW0IPlUOlcLERfLRKZ78cOn/s1600/healthcare.gov+site.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="139" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiFBEiw7NIZ_-LSphQD2jlXGyaa43ShULtNyZ3epDxk_GWGpeuwGCt0C6JbvilpZp0O-9wklQ-Qyzh0CW8u-D80r0vlfqmWyapb2ZOLMuJwaUNEHvAdyLC1sW0IPlUOlcLERfLRKZ78cOn/s320/healthcare.gov+site.PNG" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Cost to Taxpayers - <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/10/17/developing-obamacares-health-care-exchanges-has-cost-more-than-apples-original-iphone/" target="_blank">$360 - 600 Million</a></b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
One of these sites links you to a world of information. The other links to problems and glitches.</div>
Brad Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03950312793230274562noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2132506648412240909.post-92036618905089142012013-12-07T02:22:00.001-06:002013-12-07T02:22:09.925-06:00Milton Friedman on the Minimum Wage<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</xml><![endif]--><span style="font-family: "Segoe UI","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Milton Friedman spoke with such clarity that ordinary lay people could grasp fundamental economic theory. Here is Friedman speaking clearly in 1966 about the minimum wage.</span><div class="MsoNormal">
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<span style="font-family: "Segoe UI","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">"Congress has just acted
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<span style="font-family: "Segoe UI","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Does a merchant increase his sales by raising prices? The
situation is not different for other employers. The higher wage rate decreed by
Congress for low-paid workers will raise the cost of the goods that these
workers produce--and must discourage sales. It will also induce employers to
replace such workers with other workers--either to do the same work or to
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<span style="font-family: "Segoe UI","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">It has always been a mystery to me to
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employed at $1.25."</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnLgr2B6AatyjlBHnRiBcjYI5muG0OY4BL5GTx5E21rXWctPRktFd3y_CNrg546mdheRedt-NfXcTahZ1hpYpmO-lsMpV2Zgc5FBL2rEBSt3h06r2a8RcIa-pY-tyTGSgvWLMrRr07VMjf/s1600/broken+pill.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnLgr2B6AatyjlBHnRiBcjYI5muG0OY4BL5GTx5E21rXWctPRktFd3y_CNrg546mdheRedt-NfXcTahZ1hpYpmO-lsMpV2Zgc5FBL2rEBSt3h06r2a8RcIa-pY-tyTGSgvWLMrRr07VMjf/s1600/broken+pill.JPG" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But is this really true?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Did the government break a promise?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Not really.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The president and supporters of the ACA may be guilty of
pulling a fast one on the American people, but not of breaking a promise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How is this possible you say?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We all heard the president on numerous
occasions lay out several promises regarding the new healthcare law.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We repeatedly heard things like affordability
for all, retention of plans for everyone, high quality care for everyone,
improved access for everyone, and so on.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Were these not promises you say?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Additionally, we were consistently made to believe the
present ails of our draconian and unfair healthcare system would be soon be remedied
by Obamacare.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The president’s healthcare
law, we were repeatedly told, would guarantee delivery of universally-affordable,
high-quality healthcare for all Americans. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We all heard this.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, as you know, things haven’t gone
according to plan.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many of the promises
made by the president are turning out to be false.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But these weren’t really promises.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The promise of a future event or condition that lacks little
chance of occurring is not a promise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>If I promised to discover the cure for cancer in two years, no one would
believe me, because reasonable minds know it to be false. And thus my promise
wouldn’t be accepted as such.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My promise
lacks the definable features inherently associated with a promise, one of which is ability to deliver.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
With respect to Obamacare, we weren’t really promised all
these things – reasonable people knew them to be false.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We were, quite frankly, lied to.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All of the so-called promises made by
Obamacare had little to no chance of actually occurring, and thus weren’t
really promises.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A promise must have a
probable or likely chance of becoming reality.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Did most reasonable people really believe that we could all have our
cake and eat it too with respect to Obamacare?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It may sound like splitting hairs, but it’s important to
understand the difference between a lie and a promise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One has a reasonableness of expected occurence and
the other does not. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span>Politicians are fond of “promises”
but reasonable people know they are usually just disguised as lies. Learning the difference between the two will serve you
well.</div>
Brad Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03950312793230274562noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2132506648412240909.post-28352219941190681902013-11-15T03:00:00.000-06:002013-11-15T03:00:35.384-06:00Excel QuirkI came across a new hyperlinking quirk in Microsoft Excel today. I was entering some numerical values into a spreadsheet and then linking them to a PDF. I've done this hundreds of times without any problems, but today I ran into a quirk.<br />
<br />
Some of the PDFs had a pound sign in their name (i.e. claim_check#1). Excel would accept the hyperlink but refused to open the file. I got the infamous "Cannot open file" error each time I clicked on the hyperlink. I was stumped until I realized that Microsoft treats the # sign as a bookmark holder when hyperlinking. <br />
<br />
When your hyperlink points to an Excel spreadsheet or Word document, you can instruct the link to open a particular bookmark within your application. This is done by placing a # sign immediately after the hyperlink address, as shown below.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvd1R6bPpx0KyfzLods2UZbrAaWzjGPXEkrb3reMKAXOs_Ui-BKdDANb6yI7zCi8ADIjWVBdlls0JOYwdGmHFmxglHzsojvn7Aj3qTlUXAQX0ely5CvxihJzbUxSZOBEq4bwzpYQdMGRFr/s1600/excel+quirk.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="167" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvd1R6bPpx0KyfzLods2UZbrAaWzjGPXEkrb3reMKAXOs_Ui-BKdDANb6yI7zCi8ADIjWVBdlls0JOYwdGmHFmxglHzsojvn7Aj3qTlUXAQX0ely5CvxihJzbUxSZOBEq4bwzpYQdMGRFr/s320/excel+quirk.PNG" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />When Excel saw the # sign in the name of my PDF, it couldn't find the corresponding bookmark because there wasn't one. So, I got the error. Who knew? So, when naming your PDFs or other documents, avoid the # sign if you plan to hyperlink to them in Word or Excel.<br />
<br />Brad Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03950312793230274562noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2132506648412240909.post-17597098052009175732013-11-14T19:46:00.001-06:002013-11-14T19:46:37.123-06:00Reality Check<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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"This is a president adrift, confused and entirely over his
head. He has, in essence, confirmed what his harshest critics have long been
arguing: he is incompetent and unknowledgable about how the world operates.
And we have three more years left of this.”<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This is from the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2013/11/14/the-obama-disaster-news-conference/?hpid=z2" target="_blank">Washington Post opinion page</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not kidding.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Why did it take a massive display of government ineptness to
finally open the eyes of this newspaper?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>To think the government could actually make good on every lofty promise
and high-minded pronouncement about the ACA is beyond laughable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Welcome to real world, Washington Post.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
Brad Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03950312793230274562noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2132506648412240909.post-82326624225034960092013-11-12T03:42:00.000-06:002013-11-12T03:42:16.859-06:00Some thoughts on Obamacare enrollments<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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Word is that only <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/11/usa-healthcare-enrollment-idUSL2N0IW0XX20131111" target="_blank">49,100</a> folks have signed up for health
insurance since 1-Oct.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is both good
and bad news, depending on your perspective.<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
First, the good news.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Meager enrollment figures means savings for taxpayers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most assuredly, those signing up qualify for tax
rebates and subsidies, and with fewer people electing to purchase health
insurance, costs should be lower than expected. That's good news for taxpayers. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Now, the bad news.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Meager enrollment figures could hit insurers’ bottom lines. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Also most assuredly, those signing up intend
on using their health insurance. Insurance companies were counting on the young
and healthy (low users) to subsidize the old and sick (high users).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But it appears the former group is largely
sitting on the sidelines.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If this trend
continues, insurers could suffer losses.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Perhaps I should short some health insurance stock.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Any ideas on which ones?</div>
Brad Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03950312793230274562noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2132506648412240909.post-22897150990006368542013-11-08T01:35:00.000-06:002013-11-08T01:35:16.390-06:00Public or private health<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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In what world is my personal diet a matter of <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">public</i></b>
health?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Apparently government regulators
at the <a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-fda-trans-fat-20131107,0,5478599.story" target="_blank">FDA have concluded</a> that in this present world, it is.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And in the name of public health they are
banning “trans fat”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In no way is the ingestion of “trans fat” a public health
issue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the FDA can argue that it is,
then what aspect of my existence is explicitly private in nature?</div>
Brad Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03950312793230274562noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2132506648412240909.post-775755872224139152013-11-01T21:40:00.000-05:002013-11-01T21:40:39.801-05:00Oklahoma seeks to bring down Obamacare<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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Oklahoma is shepherding a <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/merrillmatthews/2013/07/31/oklahoma-lawsuit-could-effectively-defund-obamacare/" target="_blank">lawsuit </a>that could wreak havoc on
Obamacare. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With help from Michael Cannon
(of the Cato Institute), the suit claims that the law’s tax credits and
subsidies – fundamental to the law’s success and survival are available only in
states that chose to create an exchange.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The IRS, which will administer the tax rebates and subsidies, has ruled
that those subsidies will be available to everyone everywhere.<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Cannon believes that this tweak in the law was deliberate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He says Congress intentionally
limited subsidies to state-created exchanges as an incentive for states to
build their own exchange.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was the
carrot and stick approach.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You build the
exchange, you get the subsidies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If we
build it, no subsidies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Congress (mis)calculated
that this financial incentive would entice nearly all states to succumb to
Congress’s wishes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They were wrong.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Thirty four states have refused to build their own exchange.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This means that a large swath of the American
citizenry is susceptible to an adverse ruling.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Using population data from Wikipedia, I estimated that approximately 184
million people (58% of population) in those 34 states would not have access to
the tax rebates and subsidies available to the 134 million citizens in the remaining
states.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What would be the fallout if citizens in Colorado can apply
for and obtain tax credits and subsidies to offset the cost of insurance while
citizens in neighboring New Mexico cannot? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Those against the law would most likely celebrate
any ruling that nibbles away at the law itself.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>However, supporters and those looking to get subsidized insurance would
undoubtedly protest as they are now denied access to those tax rebates and
subsidies, if only for living in a Red state. I know of no federal benefit or
entitlement that is geographically limited.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I’m neither arguing for or against the position.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Personally, I despise Obamacare on many
fronts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My purpose for this post was to
think through the implications of an adverse ruling.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Denying lucrative subsides to half the
population simply won’t fly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span>I believe
this would present an untenable situation, which is why I believe no judge will
rule to strike down the nationwide tax rebates despite the strong indications
this is what should happen.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The outcome
would be profoundly divisive and unimaginably chaotic. </div>
Brad Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03950312793230274562noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2132506648412240909.post-80482999239505810822013-10-29T20:39:00.002-05:002013-10-29T20:39:51.660-05:00Applying the Gordon Growth Model to the S&P 500The Gordon Growth Model is a very old and very useful stock valuation model. It's based on the insight that the value of stock today is the present value of all future dividends the stock holder will receive. If one can argue the dividends will grow at a constant rate, then we can use the simple Gordon model:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0thFi_dciEmGs-p-XFzGtfA_mqBUqzjkpLSr9ACVgihDuK8hQ83dNzOUh4ItUUF-nttQX1C55yvkPElmW9kv-6HWEPZrw9NfqmeborTTUq3xvs4rP0mHq5GxL81O6hmN6KAyQiWYErXaf/s1600/Gordon_equation.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0thFi_dciEmGs-p-XFzGtfA_mqBUqzjkpLSr9ACVgihDuK8hQ83dNzOUh4ItUUF-nttQX1C55yvkPElmW9kv-6HWEPZrw9NfqmeborTTUq3xvs4rP0mHq5GxL81O6hmN6KAyQiWYErXaf/s1600/Gordon_equation.png" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">where <i>P</i> is the value of the stock today, <i>D</i> is the dividend in one year (normally), <i>r</i> is the required return on the stock, and <i>g</i> is the expected growth rate of the dividend. Now, using the simple model takes a lot of care, and shouldn't be applied to every stock. But, it does make sense, as an initial approach, to apply this model to the S&P 500 so we can try to get a sense of the fair value of the S&P 500. <!--[endif]--></span><!--[endif]--><br />
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Now, according to Prof. Shiller's data, the dividend you would receive if you held one share of the S&P 500 index (yes, it's not possible but this is a theoretical exercise), is 34.4. Note the current index level (which can be interpreted as the price of one share of the index) is 1776. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">I built a little table to see how reasonable the current level of the index is, given the dividend. The range of the required return (<i>r</i>) that I use is 5-8%, and the growth rate (<i>g</i>) range is 0-4%. The range of index values I generate is 430 (required return of 8%, growth rate of 0%) and 3444 (required return of 5%, and growth rate of 4%). In only three situations can I generate a value above the current index value: required return of 5% and growth of 3.5% or 4%, and required return of 5.5% and growth of 4%. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">It is important to note that a reasonable range of required return for the S&P 500 is 6-8%. The historical (back to 1871) average growth rate of dividends is 3.5%. For those values, the range of index values I find is 765 - 1377. Note that, using the current dividend yield (34.4/1776) and growth rate, we can calculate the current total return as around 5.5%. That seems abnormally low to me.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">According to my little exercise, the S&P 500 is currently above most reasonable values I can generate. I think that growth of 3.5% is rather high to expect right now. Most estimates I see are between 2-3%. That means the S&P 500 is going to drop down. I don't know when, so rather than shorting the index, put options are a better choice. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Certainly we can "tech up" the situation, which will be my next exercise. Notably, we can include risk aversion measures, because if risk aversion is down, then it is conceivable that required return is lower than normal. That could justify higher stock valuations.</span>Prof Jhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16539902592080231165noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2132506648412240909.post-49588699327394527692013-10-27T11:37:00.000-05:002013-10-27T11:37:21.591-05:00Stock Prices are High. So what?Actually, according to the S&P 500, stock prices have never been higher, in nominal terms. In real terms (data from Prof. Shiller of Yale), the S&P 500 price level is at the 3rd highest point it's ever been. The first highest was at the height of the tech boom, and the second highest was at the height of the real estate boom. But the issue is not only the height of the price level, it's the relative height. In general, we prefer to look at normalized price measures, like price-to-earnings ratios (P/E). Earnings are defined as the trailing-twelve-months net income divided by shares outstanding. In real terms, P/E right now is 23.5 (again from Prof. Shiller's data), and the long-run average (going back to the late 19th century) is 16.5. The 60-month moving average of the P/E is 20.42. That means the P/E (and so price) is relatively high.<br />
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There are some reasonable arguments for a higher P/E. The first is that fundamentals (earnings, growth, dividends) are expected to be higher in the future. While this is possible, it is not normally the case empirically speaking. In the data, higher prices are followed by low returns, not by higher earnings/growth/dividends. Earnings are certainly doing well, as they recently reached one of their highest points (in real terms) since the late 19th century. But earnings aren't the whole story, growth is also important. There is good evidence that one source of higher earnings was reduced investment, which will compromise future growth. Now, investment has recovered, and earnings have turned downward, so we'll see what happens there.<br />
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Another factor that can drive up stock prices is a reduction in the required return. Required return is composed of the risk-free rate, plus risk factors. Required return can decrease because the risk-free rate goes down (we know this has happened, but is starting to increase again). It can also decrease because: risk decreases (not buying that story) or risk aversion decreases (meaning people require a lower risk premium for a given level of risk). Many people, me included, would argue the risk-free rate is abnormally low right now and that's driving at least some of the price increase. There is also evidence the equity risk premium is abnormally low right now, but that's usually estimated using price data, so it is rather mechanical and therefore I don't like to appeal to that argument.<br />
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In my view, stock prices are relatively high right now. What should we expect if that's the case? We should expect future long-term returns to be relatively low. That means, given dividends are stable, stock prices will drop. Now there are several moves one can make to take advantage a price drop. First, you can short specific stocks, or the whole market (SPDR S&P 500 tracking shares, for example). Second, you can buy put options on same (recognizing that puts expire!). Third, you can go long on commodities that tend to do well in market crashes, like gold & silver.<br />
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The problem with any short position is that you may lose money before you make money, since the timing of the market downturn is anything but certain. So when your options expire out-of-the-money, you'll lose the premium. A short position could get called, and you may have to buy back at a loss. At least long positions can be held for much longer than shorts, so those are less risky in that sense. Of course, if you think I'm wrong, the answer is simple: go long on stocks! But don't say I didn't warn you.Prof Jhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16539902592080231165noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2132506648412240909.post-44569845957825093572013-10-06T02:00:00.002-05:002013-10-06T02:00:52.849-05:00Walker shows 'em who's bossGovernor Walker has provided the exemplar way to deal with a federal shutdown. The <a href="http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2013/10/shutdown_theater_governor_scott_walker_defies_order_to_close_wisconsin_state_parks.html">National Park Service apparently tried</a> to shut down many of the parks in the Badger state that receive federal funding - even though a majority of dollars come from state and not federal coffers.<br />
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What did Governor Walker say when the NPS ordered the parks to close? He said, nope! They'll stay open.<br />
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We need more governors like Walker who correctly understand that the feds don't always call the shots.Brad Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03950312793230274562noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2132506648412240909.post-25561939997532222582013-10-03T18:42:00.000-05:002013-10-03T18:53:55.728-05:00Non-essential government? Then why do we have it?"That the government could even have services it considers non-essential
is ludicrous. It is a blatant display of an oversized government, with
excessive programs." ~ <a href="http://www.openmarket.org/2013/10/02/please-think-of-the-pandas/">Competitive Enterprise Institute</a>.<br />
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If government is so essential to our lives, then the mere existence of non-essential government is by definition a fraud, waste, and abuse.<br />
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Now is also a perfect time to take inventory of the national government. Any feelings of dismay over a federal shutdown should be dwarfed by feelings of contempt and disgust for an abominable federal bureaucracy. <br />
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<br />Brad Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03950312793230274562noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2132506648412240909.post-54568369212509074412013-10-03T01:23:00.000-05:002013-10-03T01:23:16.878-05:00Coursera Math ClassI'm enrolled in my second Coursera course - Pre Calculus. My math skills are waning and this course provides the convenience and price (free, except for your time) I'm looking for in a remedial math course. It's being taught by two Ph.Ds from UC-Irvine. <br />
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It's a nine week course and class starts Sunday, October 6, 2013. <br />
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Here's the link in case you're interested: https://www.coursera.org/course/precalculus<br />
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<br />Brad Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03950312793230274562noreply@blogger.com0